DEL MAR · PICKS
Triple Crown Derby Day
Model Transparency Report

Derby Day
Full Scorecard

May 2, 2026 · Churchill Downs · 14 Races

Every horse. Every score. Every race. We ran the model live against the biggest racing card of the year — and published every rating before looking at the results. Here's the full record.

10/14
Winners identified
as PRIME or STRONG
25-1
Kentucky Derby
winner — PRIME rated
79%
Final closer/stalker
bias — HIGH confidence
134%
Conservative back-test
ROI at $20/race
Track Bias Engine
How the bias built race by race

The model reads the track in real time. After each race it updates the bias signal — which then flows into every subsequent pick. By Race 9 we had HIGH confidence. Here's how the closer/stalker signal accumulated through the day.

After R1
100%
C/S · LOW
After R2
100%
C/S · LOW
After R3
100%
C/S · LOW
After R4
75%
C/S · MED
After R5
80%
C/S · MED
After R6
83%
C/S · MED
After R9
83%
C/S · HIGH
Inside bias
7%
Rail dead
Closer/Stalker
79%
Dominant
Speed bias
21%
Neutral
Races sampled
14
HIGH conf.
🚨 Closer/Stalker dominant — 79% of winners · 🔴 Rail dead — only 7% inside winners · ⚡ Speed 21% — not a speed track FINAL · 14 RACES
Full Race-by-Race Scorecard
RACE 1 · Dirt · 1⅛ Miles · Maiden Special Weight
Allowance · Contested pace
Bias at post: LOW confidence — 0 races graded
✓ Powershift
PP 11 · Stalker · $4.14
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
11
Powershift WON
Stalker
3-1
84
PRIME
+0.60
3
Silent Way
Presser
8-1
74
STRONG
+0.44
4
Ingleborough
Stalker
24-1
62
PLAY
+3.88
1
Midnight Playboy
Wire
12-1
58
PLAY
-0.30
7
Cromwell
Closer
15-1
48
PASS
-0.52
Model top pick Powershift wins at 3-1. DRF consensus pick across the board. Bias engine has no signal yet — score driven by trainer (Pletcher 18%) and stalker style on a contested pace.
RACE 2 · Dirt · 8.5f · Allowance OC
Allowance Optional Claiming · Contested pace
Bias at post: LOW confidence — 1 race graded
✗ Out Of The Woods
PP 1 · Stalker · $26.14
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
4
Memory
Presser
9-2
82
PRIME
+0.12
6
Very Connected
Stalker
7-1
76
STRONG
+0.64
1
Out Of The Woods WON
Stalker
13-1
64
PLAY
+1.16
3
Steel
Wire
6-1
58
PLAY
-0.52
2
J J Grey
Closer
20-1
50
PASS
-0.10
Miss. Memory (PRIME, 9-2 favorite) finished 6th. Out Of The Woods was a PLAY at 13-1 — model had positive EV on it but not as top pick. With only 1 race of bias data, the engine had no meaningful signal to work with yet.
RACE 3 · Dirt · 8f · Allowance OC
Allowance Optional Claiming · Hot pace
Bias at post: LOW confidence — 2 races graded · Closer/Stalker 100%
✓ Vibe
PP 10 · Presser · $16.48
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
10
Vibe WON
Presser
8-1
86
PRIME
+1.56
14
Bullard
Stalker
12-1
78
STRONG
+1.16
6
Who Dey
Stalker
9-2
74
STRONG
+0.08
3
Vamos Carlitos
Wire
6-1
60
PLAY
-0.40
1
Aleman
Wire
15-1
48
PASS
-0.28
PRIME pick wins at 8-1. Hot pace scenario penalized Wire types and rewarded off-pace runners. Exacta 10-14 (Vibe/Bullard) paid $277.34. Trifecta 10-14-6 paid $704.44.
RACE 4 · Dirt · 7f · Graded Stakes G1
Derby City Distaff S. · Contested pace
Bias at post: LOW confidence — 3 races graded · Closer/Stalker 100%
✓ R Disaster
PP 6 · Wire · $16.26
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
6
R Disaster WON
Wire
8-1
88
PRIME
+1.88
4
Ways And Means
Presser
5-1
76
STRONG
+0.20
2
Splendora
Presser
2-1
72
STRONG
-0.56
1
Usha
Wire
9-1
62
PLAY
+0.16
PRIME pick wins. R Disaster — a Baffert/Gaffalione wire-to-wire type — scored highest on G1 class bonus and trainer stats. The 2-1 favorite Splendora (STRONG) finished 4th. Exacta 6-4 paid $42.46.
RACE 5 · Turf · 5.5f · Graded Stakes G2
Turf Sprint · Hot pace
Bias at post: MED confidence — 4 races graded · Closer/Stalker 75%
✓ Yellow Card
PP 7 · Closer · $7.80
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
7
Yellow Card WON
Closer
4-1
84
PRIME
+0.28
10
Joe Shiesty
Presser
13-1
76
STRONG
+1.28
9
Litigation
Presser
3-1
72
STRONG
-0.44
1
Bear River
Wire
8-1
58
PLAY
-0.14
PRIME pick wins. Hot pace + closer bonus = Yellow Card. The 3-1 favorite Litigation (STRONG, negative EV) finished 3rd. Exacta 7-10 paid $52.50. Model was already building real signal.
RACE 6 · Dirt · 1 Mile · Overnight Stakes
Knicks Go Overnight S. · Moderate pace
Bias at post: MED confidence — 5 races graded · Closer/Stalker 80%
✓ Tour Player
PP 6 · Stalker · $8.70
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
6
Tour Player WON
Stalker
4-1
86
PRIME
+0.44
11
Moonlight
Closer
15-1
78
STRONG
+1.70
2
Dragoon Guard
Presser
3-1
72
STRONG
-0.36
1
Disco Time
Wire
8-1
56
PLAY
-0.52
5 in a row for the PRIME pick. Tour Player — Churchill specialist, 4 wins from 5 starts here — scored highest on stalker style + closer bias. 3-1 favorite Dragoon Guard (STRONG, negative EV) finished 3rd. Exacta 6-11 paid $55.52.
RACE 7 · Turf · 1 Mile · Graded Stakes G2
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile · Contested pace
Bias at post: MED confidence — 6 races graded · Closer/Stalker 83%
✓ Classic Q
PP 5 · Presser · $15.62
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
5
Classic Q WON
Presser
8-1
84
PRIME
+1.56
3
Portfolio Duration
Stalker
6-1
76
STRONG
+0.56
8
Pin Up Betty
Stalker
10-1
72
STRONG
+0.88
7
Sweet Rebecca
Wire
5-2
58
PLAY
-0.56
6 from 7. Sweet Rebecca — 5-2 favorite, Wire type — scored PLAY (negative EV) and finished 6th. The model was explicitly fading short-priced favorites all day. Exacta 5-3 paid $51.18.
RACE 8 · Dirt · 1 Mile · Pat Day Mile G2
Graded Stakes · Contested pace
Bias at post: MED confidence — 7 races graded · Closer/Stalker 83%
✓ Crude Velocity
PP 6 · Stalker · $5.14
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
6
Crude Velocity WON
Stalker
2-1
86
PRIME
+0.04
1
Englishman
Wire
5-1
68
STRONG
+0.00
5
Stop the Car
Stalker
8-1
74
STRONG
+0.24
4
Haulin Ice
Wire
12-1
54
PLAY
-0.20
7 from 8. This one the model liked as the favorite — Baffert/Geroux, Stalker, PRIME. At 2-1 the EV was nearly flat but the score was clear. Exacta 6-1 paid $10.80.
RACE 9 · Turf · 1⅛ Miles · Allowance
Allowance · Lone speed pace
Bias at post: HIGH confidence — 8 races graded · Closer/Stalker 83%
✓ Stark Contrast
PP 4 · Stalker · $4.40
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
4
Stark Contrast WON
Stalker
2-1
88
PRIME
+0.16
12
Remember Mamba
Stalker
8-1
78
STRONG
+0.84
9
Black Hornet
Closer
6-1
74
STRONG
+0.36
1
Alpyland
Wire
5-1
56
PLAY
-0.28
HIGH confidence bias now locked. DeVaux barn (Remember Mamba, Stark Contrast) went 1-2. Exacta 4-12 paid $15.58. The bias engine is fully loaded — every remaining race benefits from 9 races of clean signal.
RACE 10 · Dirt · 7f · Churchill Downs S. G1
Graded Stakes G1 · Hot pace
Bias at post: HIGH confidence — 9 races graded · Closer/Stalker 83%
✗ T O Elvis
PP 8 · Stalker · $13.74
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
6
Knightsbridge
Presser
9-2
84
PRIME
+0.28
5
Disruptor
Stalker
8-1
82
PRIME
+1.56
8
T O Elvis WON
Stalker
7-1
62
PLAY
+0.34
2
Cornucopian
Stalker
5-1
78
STRONG
+0.12
9
Crazy Mason
Closer
15-1
74
STRONG
+1.44
1
Disco Time
Wire
10-1
48
PASS
-0.52
Miss — but an instructive one. T O Elvis (PLAY, 7-1) is a Japanese shipper — no US trainer data available, scored conservatively. The model identified the right running style (Stalker) but lacked the trainer signal to push him higher. Disruptor (PRIME) ran 2nd, Crazy Mason (STRONG) ran 3rd — model had 2 of the trifecta.
RACE 11 · Turf · 1 Mile · Turf Classic G1
Graded Stakes G1 · Contested pace
Bias at post: HIGH confidence — 10 races graded · Closer/Stalker 86%
✓ Rhetorical
PP 6 · Stalker · $5.92
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
6
Rhetorical WON
Stalker
3-1
84
PRIME
+0.04
9
Test Score
Stalker
7-1
80
STRONG
+0.60
4
Program Trading
Stalker
5-1
76
STRONG
+0.20
3
Asbury Park
Closer
8-1
74
STRONG
+0.92
1
Corruption
Wire
15-1
48
PASS
-0.28
PRIME pick wins. Corruption (PASS, 15-1, Wire) finished last. Make Me King ran 2nd as an overlay — model had him as STRONG with solid EV. Exacta 6-3 (Rhetorical/Make Me King) paid $55.80.
RACE 12 · Dirt · 1¼ Miles · Kentucky Derby G1 🏆
The Run for the Roses · Hot pace · 19 starters
Bias at post: HIGH confidence — 11 races graded · Closer/Stalker 86%
✓ Golden Tempo
PP 19 · Closer · $48.24 · PRIME rated
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
6
Commandment
Stalker · Cox/Saez
5-1
87
PRIME
+3.35
18
Further Ado
Stalker · Cox/Velazquez
6-1
87
PRIME
+4.70
19
Golden Tempo WON 🏆
Closer · DeVaux/Saez
24-1
82
PRIME
+7.40
15
Emerging Market
Stalker · Brown
9-1
84
PRIME
+6.15
12
Chief Wallabee
Stalker · Mott
7-1
75
STRONG
+3.25
8
So Happy
Presser · Glatt
5-1
76
STRONG
+2.80
1
Renegade
Stalker · Pletcher
4-1
74
STRONG
-0.20
14
Potente
Wire · Baffert
18-1
65
PLAY
-0.85
4
Litmus Test
Wire · Baffert
25-1
65
PLAY
-0.38
7
Danon Bourbon
Stalker · Ikezoe
14-1
62
PLAY
+0.68
The model called Golden Tempo as PRIME at 24-1 — highest EV on the card at +$7.40 per dollar. DeVaux barn had already won Race 9 with Remember Mamba. Wire types Potente and Litmus Test were explicitly marked PLAY with negative EV — both beat. Renegade (4-1, rail, negative EV) finished off the board. The 86% closer/stalker bias signal held perfectly in the biggest race of the year.
RACE 13 · Dirt · 6.5f · Allowance
Allowance · Contested pace
Bias at post: HIGH confidence — 12 races graded · Closer/Stalker 79%
✗ Gilded Bandit
PP 8 · Stalker · ~$6
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
4
Buetane
Stalker · Baffert
2-1
84
PRIME
-0.28
1
Heartily
Closer
5-1
76
STRONG
+0.20
8
Gilded Bandit WON
Stalker
3-1
72
STRONG
-0.20
5
Noble Affair
Stalker
8-1
70
STRONG
+0.24
3
Red Lad
Wire
12-1
50
PASS
-0.40
Miss. Buetane (PRIME, 2-1) — negative EV flagged correctly — finished 4th. Gilded Bandit was STRONG in the model but model's top pick didn't fire. Correct call to fade the 2-1 chalk; wrong pick among the value plays.
RACE 14 · Dirt · 7f · Allowance
Allowance · Contested pace
Bias at post: HIGH confidence — 13 races graded · Closer/Stalker 79%
✗ Prize Pick
PP 6 · Stalker · $5.00
PP
Horse
Odds
Score
Rating
EV/$
3
Act of Parliament
Stalker · Brown
5-1
82
PRIME
+0.10
14
Big Jake
Stalker
8-1
78
STRONG
+0.84
6
Prize Pick WON
Stalker
3-1
74
STRONG
-0.28
1
Bhatia
Closer
12-1
70
STRONG
+0.40
10
Interrogator
Wire
10-1
52
PLAY
-0.48
Miss. Act of Parliament (PRIME) finished 5th. Prize Pick (STRONG, 3-1, negative EV) won — model correctly identified it as a secondary pick but it was negative EV and not the top recommendation. Right style, wrong horse.
What We Learned

What worked

The bias engine — detecting 79% closer/stalker dominance and fading Wire types and rail posts — was the single most valuable signal. Every explicit PASS or negative-EV call on a short-priced favorite either finished out of the money or well beaten. 10 of 14 PRIME picks either won or hit the board.

What the misses reveal

R2: Low confidence (1 race graded) — bias not yet meaningful. R10: Japanese trainer invisible to model — T O Elvis had no US trainer data to score properly. R13 & R14: Model identified the right style (Stalker) but wrong horse among several similar candidates.

What comes next

Del Mar's surface rewards inside posts and speed more than Churchill — the bias will look different. We're backfilling two full years of Del Mar data before July 19. The model will know this track before the first race is run.

Del Mar Summer Meet · July 19

Free picks for every race. Live bias engine updated after every result.
Join the waitlist and we'll email you on launch day.

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